The UFC heads back to the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Oct. 31 for UFC Vegas 123, headlined by a lightweight clash between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan. It is the first UFC main event for the Australian Nolan, who comes in on a five fight win streak inside the organization.

Nolan sits at No. 14 in our lightweight rankings and last fought on June 6, taking a unanimous decision over Fares Ziam. Moicano is just ahead of him at No. 12 and is coming off a finish of his own, submitting Chris Duncan with a rear naked choke in the second round back on April 4.

The books have this one tight. Moicano is the favorite at minus 120, with Nolan sitting at plus 110. Our own model leans Moicano as well, giving him 55 percent against Nolan's 45 percent, a slight edge either way you look at it. The Elo numbers tell a similarly close story, with Moicano at 1564 and Nolan just ahead at 1578, with each fighter's rating built from seven bouts.

Both men made weight on Friday ahead of fight night, according to Cageside Press, clearing the way for their lightweight showdown to go on as planned.

Elsewhere on the card, Brazilian prospect Tainara Lisboa opens the preliminary card against Lucia Szabová after moving up in weight, looking for a turning point in her UFC run following a difficult stretch. Lisboa rates 1496 on our Elo through four bouts.

Also on the card is TUF 33 runner-up Rodrigo Sezinando, making his return after suffering a facial bone fracture in the tournament's final back in September 2025.