Our model calls every upcoming UFC main-card fight, then shows its work: win probability against the betting line, how the fight likely ends, and the tale of the tape.
81
Fights called
0
Value picks
7
Strong calls
Our track record
91-29
Record
76%
Hit rate
77%
The books
0.172
Brier (lower=better)
Across 120 graded picks · value picks 13-2. Auto-graded from results.
The books give Brendan Allen ~53% | = their line+1.3 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Brendan Allen ~57%
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
Line: Brendan Allen -120 · Christian Leroy Duncan +110
With a significant lack of concrete data on both fighters' form, styles, physical attributes, and finishing capabilities, it's impossible to establish a strong lean. Brendan Allen's mention in the context of title contention offers a slight edge in perceived pressure and stakes, but this is speculative. The fight is imminent, and without further information, the outcome remains highly uncertain.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Loopy Godínez.
Loopy Godínez59%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Loopy Godínez ~59% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
-
Reach
61"
-
Height
5' 2"
-
Age
33
-
Stance
Orthodox
With virtually no information available on Ketlen Souza and very limited data on Loopy Godínez, it is impossible to establish any meaningful analysis or prediction for this bout. All factors remain completely unknown.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Kai Kamaka III.
Kai Kamaka III54%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Kai Kamaka III ~53% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
With no information available on either fighter's physical attributes, recent form, or stylistic tendencies, it is impossible to provide a meaningful analysis or prediction for this bout. Both fighters are essentially unknowns in this context.
With no concrete information available on either fighter's form, style, physical attributes, finishing ability, activity, or experience, it is impossible to provide a meaningful analysis.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Ilias Bulaid.
Ilias Bulaid52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
70.5"
Reach
65.5"
5' 8"
Height
5' 7"
31
Age
29
--
Stance
--
With very limited information available on both fighters, this matchup is difficult to analyze. The only clear advantage is Ilias Bulaid's significant reach advantage, but without knowing their styles or recent form, it's impossible to predict how this will play out. The fight is a toss-up based on the current data.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Aline Pereira.
Aline Pereira51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
70"
Reach
69.5"
5' 9"
Height
5' 10"
35
Age
21
--
Stance
--
This is a difficult fight to analyze due to a significant lack of available information on both fighters. Aline Pereira holds a slight physical advantage in height and reach, while Smilla Sundell is considerably younger. Without any data on their recent form, fighting styles, finishing abilities, or any contextual factors, it's impossible to establish a clear lean.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Will Rentz.
Will Rentz50%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
-
Reach
83"
-
Height
6' 6"
27
Age
30
--
Stance
--
This is a difficult fight to analyze due to a severe lack of information on both fighters. However, without knowing Rentz's style or any finishing capabilities, it's impossible to make a strong prediction.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Davi Cabral.
Davi Cabral50%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
5' 9"
Height
6' 3"
27
Age
27
--
Stance
--
This is a difficult fight to analyze due to a severe lack of information on both fighters. However, without any data on their form, styles, finishing ability, or recent activity, it's impossible to make a confident prediction.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Jason Asher.
Jason Asher50%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
6' 1"
Height
5' 11"
26
Age
34
--
Stance
--
With very limited information available on both Jason Asher and Greg Foster, it's difficult to establish a strong prediction. However, without data on form, finishing ability, or stylistic matchups, this fight is largely a mystery.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Mike Malott.
Mike Malott51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Mike Malott ~52% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
73"
Reach
76"
6' 1"
Height
5' 10"
34
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
This is a difficult fight to analyze with the limited information available. Joaquin Buckley holds a slight reach advantage, which could be a factor in striking exchanges. However, without more data on their recent form, stylistic tendencies, and finishing abilities, it's impossible to establish a clear lean.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Jasmine Jasudavicius.
Jasmine Jasudavicius52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Jasmine Jasudavicius ~51% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 30% Dec 40%
66"
Reach
68"
5' 4"
Height
5' 7"
27
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
With very limited information available on either fighter's recent form, stylistic tendencies, finishing ability, or fight context, it is impossible to establish a strong lean. The physical differences are noted, but without more data, the matchup remains largely unknown.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Kyle Nelson.
Kyle Nelson59%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Kyle Nelson ~59% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
71"
Reach
72"
5' 11"
Height
5' 9"
35
Age
27
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
With very limited information available on both fighters, it is impossible to establish a clear lean. The physicals offer a slight edge to Nelson in height and reach, but the age difference favors Pérez. Without data on form, style, finishing ability, activity, or sentiment, this fight is a complete unknown.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Kyle Daukaus.
Kyle Daukaus56%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Kyle Daukaus ~55% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
76"
Reach
74"
6' 2"
Height
6' 1"
33
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
This is a difficult fight to analyze due to a significant lack of information on both fighters' recent form, stylistic tendencies, finishing abilities, activity, and overall fight context. The only discernible advantage is a slight physical edge for Kyle Daukaus in height and reach. Without more data, it's impossible to confidently predict a winner or method of victory.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Louis Jourdain.
Louis Jourdain51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Louis Jourdain ~51% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
69"
Reach
71"
5' 9"
Height
5' 9"
29
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
With very limited information available on both Louis Jourdain and Timmy Cuamba, it is impossible to establish a clear lean or confidence level for this matchup. Both fighters are of similar physical dimensions, and without insight into their recent form, stylistic approaches, finishing abilities, or fight context, any prediction would be pure speculation.
The books give Movsar Evloev ~51% | = their line+4.3 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Movsar Evloev ~63%
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 25% Sub 15% Dec 60%
71.5"
Reach
72.5"
5' 6"
Height
5' 7"
37
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Line: Alexander Volkanovski -101 · Movsar Evloev -112
This is a fascinating stylistic matchup where the undefeated Movsar Evloev faces the former champion Alexander Volkanovski. Evloev's relentless pressure and wrestling could pose problems, but his lack of finishing ability against Volkanovski's experience and championship pedigree makes this a tough ask. Volkanovski's ability to adapt and his proven track record in championship rounds give him an e
The books give Petr Yan ~63% | = their line-5.1 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Petr Yan ~42%
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
68"
Reach
67"
5' 6"
Height
5' 7"
35
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Line: Merab Dvalishvili +165 · Petr Yan -172
This is a closely matched bout between two high-pressure, durable bantamweights. Without specific recent form, stylistic breakdowns, or activity information, it's impossible to establish a clear lean. Both fighters have proven themselves at the highest level, making this a difficult fight to predict based on the limited data.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Ramazan Temirov.
Ramazan Temirov52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Ramazan Temirov ~53% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 30% Dec 40%
63"
Reach
67"
5' 4"
Height
5' 6"
29
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kavanagh holds a slight physical advantage in height and reach. However, without any data on form, style, finishing ability, or recent activity, this fight is essentially a coin flip based on the available information.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Alexander Volkov.
Alexander Volkov59%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Alexander Volkov ~53% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 50% Sub 10% Dec 40%
80"
Reach
76"
6' 7"
Height
6' 4"
37
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alexander Volkov's significant reach and height advantage, coupled with his more proven striking arsenal against higher-level competition, give him a notable edge. While Rizvan Kuniev possesses dangerous wrestling and power, Volkov's ability to control distance and his experience in the UFC should allow him to manage the fight.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Azamat Murzakanov.
Azamat Murzakanov56%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Azamat Murzakanov ~53% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 10% Dec 50%
71.5"
Reach
77"
5' 10"
Height
6' 4"
37
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Dominick Reyes holds a substantial physical advantage with his height and reach, which is the most significant factor in this matchup given the lack of other available information. This reach advantage should allow Reyes to control the distance and dictate the striking exchanges.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Tom Nolan.
Tom Nolan58%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Tom Nolan ~52% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 40% Sub 30% Dec 30%
72"
Reach
73"
5' 11"
Height
6' 3"
37
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Tom Nolan presents a significant physical challenge for Renato Moicano with his height, reach, and southpaw stance. While Moicano has more experience, Nolan's physical advantages and finishing ability could overwhelm him. Moicano's best path is likely to close the distance and implement his grappling, but Nolan's size may make that difficult.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Joe Kropschot.
Joe Kropschot57%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Joe Kropschot ~57% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
79"
Reach
77"
6' 3"
Height
6' 1"
31
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kropschot holds a slight physical advantage in height and reach, but without details on their recent form, fighting styles, or finishing capabilities, the matchup remains largely unknown. This fight is a coin flip based on the current data.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Tainara Lisboa.
Tainara Lisboa50%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 30% Dec 40%
67"
Reach
-
5' 7"
Height
5' 7"
35
Age
-
Orthodox
Stance
--
With extremely limited information available on both Tainara Lisboa and Lucia Szabova, it is impossible to establish any meaningful edges. Therefore, this matchup is a complete unknown.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Randy Brown.
Randy Brown52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Randy Brown ~56% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 10% Dec 60%
74"
Reach
78"
5' 11"
Height
6' 3"
32
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Randy Brown holds a significant physical advantage with a four-inch height and reach lead over Carlos Leal. Without more detailed information on their recent form, stylistic matchups, finishing abilities, or activity, the physical disparity becomes the most prominent factor to consider. This fight is difficult to assess due to a lack of readily available data on most key factors.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Luana Santos.
Luana Santos56%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Luana Santos ~55% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
68"
Reach
67"
5' 6"
Height
5' 6"
36
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Both fighters are identical in height with a minimal reach difference, and share the same orthodox stance. Without further data, this fight is a complete unknown.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Gabriel Bonfim.
Gabriel Bonfim57%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Gabriel Bonfim ~58% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 40% Sub 30% Dec 30%
72"
Reach
72.5"
5' 10"
Height
6' 1"
33
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gabriel Bonfim enters this matchup with a slight edge due to his more consistent recent finishing ability and perceived dynamism. While Sean Brady is a capable and experienced fighter, his layoff and less frequent finishes give Bonfim the opportunity to capitalize. Bonfim's physical advantages, though minor, combined with his offensive output, should allow him to control the pace.
form →Bradyfinishing →Bonfimphysical →Bonfimactivity →Brady
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Tatiana Suarez.
Tatiana Suarez58%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Tatiana Suarez ~50% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 30% Sub 40% Dec 30%
66"
Reach
64"
5' 5"
Height
5' 3"
35
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tatiana Suarez holds a stylistic advantage with her superior wrestling and top control against Virna Jandiroba's submission game. While both fighters have faced layoffs and have submission threats, Suarez's ability to dictate grappling exchanges and her more diverse finishing arsenal give her the edge.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Mantas Kondratavičius.
Mantas Kondratavičius57%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Mantas Kondratavičius ~59% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
77"
Reach
75.5"
6' 2"
Height
6' 2"
30
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
With very little information available on either fighter, this matchup is difficult to assess. Both fighters are of similar physical stature, with Schultz holding a marginal reach advantage. Without any data on recent form, fighting styles, finishing ability, or activity, it's impossible to establish a clear lean.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Billy Elekana.
Billy Elekana57%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Billy Elekana ~57% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 30% Dec 40%
77.5"
Reach
80.5"
6' 3"
Height
6' 3"
31
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
With extremely limited information available on both Billy Elekana and Lucas Fernando, it is impossible to establish any meaningful advantages. Both fighters share identical height, and while Fernando has a reach advantage, there is no data to suggest how this might play out. All factors remain neutral due to a lack of concrete information.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Austin Bashi.
Austin Bashi51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Austin Bashi ~54% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 30% Dec 30%
71"
Reach
70"
5' 10"
Height
5' 6"
26
Age
25
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lucas Brennan holds a notable physical advantage with his height and reach, which he can leverage as a southpaw against the orthodox Austin Bashi. Without further information on form, finishing ability, or activity, the physical and stylistic edges are the primary drivers of this early assessment.
The books give Ciryl Gane ~70% | = their line+1.4 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Ciryl Gane ~43%
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 50% Sub 10% Dec 40%
73.5"
Reach
81"
6' 1"
Height
6' 4"
28
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Line: Josh Hokit +220 · Ciryl Gane -265
📊 OSM is 32-18 on lean calls
Ciryl Gane holds a significant physical advantage with his reach and height, coupled with superior technical striking. Josh Hokit, while a heavyweight, does not appear to possess the skillset or experience to overcome Gane's polished offensive and defensive capabilities. Gane's movement and striking should allow him to control the distance and dictate the pace of the fight.
The books give Kayla Harrison ~64% | = their line-3.4 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Kayla Harrison ~57%
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 30% Dec 30%
69"
Reach
66"
5' 8"
Height
5' 8"
38
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Line: Amanda Nunes +169 · Kayla Harrison -192
This is a clash of titans where the veteran champion Amanda Nunes faces the surging undefeated challenger Kayla Harrison. While Nunes possesses the championship pedigree and proven striking power, Harrison's relentless grappling and southpaw style present a unique challenge. The fight could come down to whether Harrison can impose her will on the ground or if Nunes can keep the fight standing and
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Caio Borralho.
Caio Borralho59%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Caio Borralho ~54% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 10% Dec 50%
75"
Reach
79"
6' 1"
Height
6' 6"
33
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Yousri Belgaroui enters with a significant physical advantage in height and reach, which should allow him to control the distance and dictate the striking exchanges. Caio Borralho, being the Southpaw, will need to find a way inside Belgaroui's long guard to land effectively. Without more information on their recent form or finishing capabilities, the physical disparity is the most dominant factor.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Uroš Medić.
Uroš Medić51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Uroš Medić ~57% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 30% Dec 30%
81"
Reach
71"
6' 3"
Height
6' 1"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Kevin Holland holds a significant physical advantage with a substantial reach and height difference over Uroš Medić. This, combined with Holland's diverse skillset and potential to exploit Medić's southpaw stance, gives him a slight edge. However, with limited information on recent form, finishing ability, and overall context, this remains a difficult fight to predict with high confidence.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Bilal Hasan.
Bilal Hasan63%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Bilal Hasan ~61% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
64"
Reach
70"
5' 5"
Height
5' 7"
32
Age
25
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
📊 OSM is 32-18 on lean calls
Hasan holds a notable physical advantage in height and reach, which could be a factor if the fight remains standing. However, without any data on their recent form, styles, or finishing capabilities, any prediction would be speculative.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Kevin Vallejos.
Kevin Vallejos55%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Kevin Vallejos ~56% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 30% Dec 40%
71"
Reach
68"
5' 7"
Height
5' 7"
37
Age
24
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
With very limited information available on both fighters, it is difficult to establish a clear prediction. Sterling holds a slight physical advantage with a longer reach, but without further data on their recent form, styles, and finishing capabilities, this remains a highly uncertain matchup.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Dan Hooker.
Dan Hooker59%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Dan Hooker ~55% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 50% Sub 20% Dec 30%
69"
Reach
75"
5' 8"
Height
6' 0"
35
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Switch
Dan Hooker holds a significant physical advantage with a 7-inch reach and 4-inch height difference over Brian Ortega. This, combined with Hooker's likely power advantage from moving down from Lightweight, suggests he should be able to control the range and dictate the pace of the fight. Ortega's path to victory would likely involve closing the distance and nullifying Hooker's physical advantages,
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Ikram Aliskerov.
Ikram Aliskerov56%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Ikram Aliskerov ~58% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 50% Sub 20% Dec 30%
77.5"
Reach
76"
5' 11"
Height
6' 0"
42
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Jared Cannonier's experience against top-tier competition and his proven knockout power give him a slight edge. While Ikram Aliskerov is a dangerous grappler with an undefeated record, Cannonier's ability to defend takedowns and land heavy shots makes him the more likely victor if the fight stays standing.
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Shamil Gaziev.
Shamil Gaziev58%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Shamil Gaziev ~56% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
78.5"
Reach
83"
6' 4"
Height
6' 7"
36
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
This is a difficult matchup to analyze due to a severe lack of information on both fighters' recent form, styles, and finishing capabilities. The only clear advantage is Teixeira's significant physical size advantage in the heavyweight division. However, Gaziev's age and potential inactivity are concerns. Without more data, it's impossible to make a strong prediction.
The books give Charles Oliveira ~59% | = their line+3.6 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Charles Oliveira ~40%
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 35% Sub 55% Dec 10%
74"
Reach
72.5"
5' 10"
Height
5' 11"
36
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Line: Charles Oliveira -150 · Diego Lopes +140
📊 OSM is 32-18 on lean calls
Charles Oliveira, despite his recent KO loss, remains a significant threat with his elite grappling and improving striking. Oliveira's path to victory likely involves getting the fight to the ground, where his submission game is superior.
The books give Joe Pyfer ~62% | = their line-2.4 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Joe Pyfer ~51%
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 30% Dec 30%
75"
Reach
76"
6' 2"
Height
6' 1"
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Line: Joe Pyfer -180 · Bo Nickal +153
This is a highly anticipated matchup between two dangerous middleweights. Bo Nickal's elite wrestling pedigree presents a significant threat, but Joe Pyfer is a capable striker with finishing power. Without more detailed information on recent form and specific stylistic breakdowns, it's difficult to establish a strong lean.
We treat the betting line as the starting point, because the crowd already prices most of the signal, then adjust it with seven scouting factors (form, style, physical, finishing, activity, context, sentiment), each grounded in the real tale of the tape and weighted by how confident we are it matters here. We cap how far we can drift from the market, so a pick is never a wild swing. When our number meaningfully beats the line, we flag it a value pick. For upcoming UFC cards we call the whole main card, even before the books post a line.
Every pick is logged and auto-graded against the result, so the record above is honest, fight by fight, including how we stack up against the betting line.
Common questions
Straight answers, from the same numbers as the cards above.
How accurate is the Open Scoring MMA prediction model?
The model's public record is 91-29 (76% of picks correct) across 120 graded fights, against 77% for the betting favourite over the same fights. Every pick is logged before the fight and graded from the official result, win or lose.
Who is favoured in Josh Hokit vs Ciryl Gane?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Ciryl Gane the pick at about 71% to win. The betting line implies about 70%, so we are higher than the market. Gane is a highly technical and mobile striker with excellent footwork and defense. Hokit is a more traditional heavyweight, likely less skilled and mobile. Gane is a former interim champion with wins over top contenders. Hokit's recent form is not well-documented, but he is not on the same level of competition as Gane.
Who is favoured in Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Charles Oliveira the pick at about 63% to win. The betting line implies about 59%, so we are higher than the market. Oliveira is a submission wizard with improving striking, while Lopes is a dangerous striker with submission ability. Both fighters are known finishers. Oliveira has a vast array of submissions and KO power, while Lopes is a powerful striker with submission threats. Oliveira's durability has been questioned.
Who is favoured in Ilias Bulaid vs Erick Visconde?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Ilias Bulaid the pick at about 52% to win. Bulaid has a significant 5-inch reach advantage, which is a notable physical edge.
Who is favoured in Mike Malott vs Joaquin Buckley?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Mike Malott the pick at about 51% to win. Buckley has a 3-inch reach advantage, which could be significant in striking exchanges. Malott is slightly taller but reach is often more critical.
Who is favoured in Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Movsar Evloev the pick at about 56% to win. The betting line implies about 51%, so we are higher than the market. Evloev has zero finishes in the UFC, winning all 10 fights by decision. Volkanovski has shown finishing ability earlier in his career, but his recent fights have gone to decision. Volkanovski is a former champion with extensive experience in high-stakes title fights. Evloev is fighting for a title for the first time.
Who is favoured in Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Tom Nolan the pick at about 58% to win. Nolan has a substantial 6-inch height and 1-inch reach advantage, along with being 11 years younger, giving him a clear physical edge. Nolan's southpaw stance and significant height/reach advantage could pose problems for Moicano's orthodox style, potentially allowing Nolan to control distance and land effectively.
Who is favoured in Sean Brady vs Gabriel Bonfim?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Gabriel Bonfim the pick at about 57% to win. Brady is coming off a win, but had a significant layoff before that. Bonfim is on a strong win streak, but against less established competition. Bonfim has shown more consistent finishing ability in recent fights, both striking and submissions. Brady's finishes are less frequent.
Who is favoured in Jiří Procházka vs Navajo Stirling?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Navajo Stirling the pick at about 50% to win. Prochazka is a former champion with a dominant win over Teixeira, though he's coming off a layoff. Stirling is undefeated and has been building momentum against solid competition. Prochazka has devastating KO power and has finished many fights. Stirling is also an undefeated finisher, but Prochazka's proven power against higher-level opposition gives him an edge.
Picks updated 2026-10-09T11:02:34Z. Catch every upcoming card on the Fight Tracker. Not betting advice, for entertainment.
