Josh Hokit is picking up some heavyweight hitters in his corner this week, and they're not even on the card. Sean O'Malley told LowKick MMA plainly, "I want to see Josh Hokit win so bad," throwing his name behind the underdog ahead of Saturday's UFC 334 main event at Madison Square Garden.

Sean Strickland went a step further. Strickland is coming off a split decision win over Khamzat Chimaev in May and sits at a 1545 Elo rating built across nine bouts in our system.

Not everyone's buying the underdog story. Paddy Pimblett came out and said it would be bad for the sport if Hokit walks out of UFC 334 with the heavyweight belt, making clear he's not a fan of the gimmick that's carried Hokit this far.

The numbers explain why this is being treated as a genuine upset bid rather than a coronation. Hokit is ranked fourth at heavyweight and enters at plus 170, with our model giving him a 33 percent chance on a lean confidence basis. He's riding a second round knockout of Derrick Lewis from June and carries a 1609 Elo rating from five bouts, actually higher than Gane's.

Gane, the champion, sits at minus 183 with our model favoring him at 67 percent. He's coming off a brutal second round finish of Alex Pereira in his last outing and rates 1559 on Elo across four bouts, making his first defense of the title this Saturday.