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Final Tue, Sep 29UFCGeorge Staines (winner)vsLoai AbushaarFinal Sat, Oct 3UFCNatalia Silva (winner)vsWang CongFinal Tue, Oct 6UFCPreston LaGrange (winner)vsNell ArianoSat, Oct 10 5:00 PM PTUFCBrendan AllenvsChristian Leroy DuncanTue, Oct 13 4:00 PM PTUFCIlias BulaidvsErick ViscondeFri, Oct 16 8:00 PM PTPFLLiz CarmouchevsJena BishopSat, Oct 17 5:00 PM PTUFCMike MalottvsJoaquin BuckleySat, Oct 24 11:00 AM PTUFCAlexander VolkanovskivsMovsar EvloevSat, Oct 31 5:00 PM PTUFCRenato MoicanovsTom Nolan
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Opinion

Silva Is the Right Favorite, Talbott's -625 Isn't Hype

At UFC 332 we trust the number on top of the card more than the one in the co-main's opposite corner, and we're taking the age gap the model shrugged off in the lightweight bout between King Green and Esteban Ribovics.

The house view, Open Scoring MMA · · before UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

This is opinion, not reporting. It argues from facts we have published, and every call below is graded against the official result after the fights, misses included.

UFC 332 lands October 3 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, and it carries a real distinction: the first numbered UFC main card on CBS, streaming alongside Paramount+. That milestone deserves a main event people actually believe in, and this one delivers, even if the belt is vacant because Valentina Shevchenko was forced out due to injury.

Natalia Silva and Wang Cong meet for the vacant women's flyweight title. Natalia Silva steps in ranked number one, carrying a 14-fight winning streak and an unbeaten run through eight UFC bouts, sitting at 20-5-1. Our model likes Silva at 63 percent, the market a touch higher at 66. We side with the market here. Wang's physical edge in height and reach is real on paper, but a fighter with Silva's streak and unbeaten UFC ledger facing someone without a settled read on recent form and style is exactly the kind of gap that shows up in championship rounds. Silva wins this and leaves Salt Lake City with the belt.

The Co-Main Isn't Close

Payton Talbott is the largest favorite on the entire card, and the number is not an accident. He's 11-1-0, returns off a win where he outworked Henry Cejudo last December, and holds real advantages in height, reach and youth over Deiveson Figueiredo. Figueiredo brings a former flyweight title and a dangerous skill set at 25-7-1, but he's coming off a loss to Song Yadong by second round guillotine in May, and our tracker has this line at -625. Our model agrees at 84 percent, the market matches it at 84. We're not fading this one. Talbott's size and pace are the problem Figueiredo has to solve, and nothing here says he's solved it recently. We take Talbott.

Where We Split From the Model

King Green vs Esteban Ribovics is listed as a pick'em, with our model giving Green a bare 51 percent. Green is 36-17-1, Ribovics 16-3-0, and the model itself flags that the age gap significantly favors Ribovics, with only a slight reach edge keeping Green in the conversation. We'll take Ribovics here. Green has been vocal about the sport lately, but noise outside the cage doesn't close an age gap inside it.

Elsewhere, Roberto Soldić vs Khaos Williams is worth watching for reasons beyond the model's 52 percent lean to Williams. Soldić has talked about the pay gap between his UFC checks and his One Championship money while still saying he wants to build here, and he's moving up to middleweight against a natural welterweight with a real reach advantage. That adjustment matters more than either fighter's power. Roman Kopylov vs Ateba Gautier is genuinely speculative by the model's own admission, height, reach and age all favoring Gautier with nothing on recent form to lean on, so we're leaving that one alone.

Our calls: 3-0

What we argued from